Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the nation and caused turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or activists are willing to participate with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two articles that seek objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments encompass identity markers, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has has valuable insights to learn from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
